About this title: "The Drunkard's Walk" is a magnificent exploration of the role that chance plays in our lives. Often historical, occasionally hysterical, and consistently smart and funny, this book challenges everything we think we know.--Daniel Gilbert, author of "Stumbling on Happiness."
Note: This is a general synopsis. Each listing is described below.
Description: Good. Former Library book. Shows some signs of wear, and may have some markings on the inside. Shipped to over one million happy customers. Your purchase benefits world literacy! read more
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Pantheon
Date Published: 2008-05-13
ISBN-13:9780375424045ISBN:0375424040
Description: New in Very Good jacket. New hardback book. Has publisher's inventory dot on bottom edges and small, 1" tear on dust jacket. We ship 6 days a week, generally within 24 hours; single CDs and DVDs upgraded to 1st class! read more
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Pantheon Books
Date Published: 2008-05-13
ISBN-13:9780375424045ISBN:0375424040
Description: NEW. Hardcover. From an inventory that is 100% brand-new, 100% direct from the publishers' distribution channel. We carry NO pre-owned, NO remaindered. We pack in CARDBOARD to ensure the pristine quality is maintained. (Bubble-wrap alone is NOT sufficient to protect from USPS equipment. ) Guaranteed brand-NEW, protected with CARDBOARD, your satisfaction is guaranteed. BKLUVID: 9780375424045. read more
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Pantheon
Date Published: 2008
ISBN-13:9780375424045ISBN:0375424040
Description: New. Brand New! Buy with confidence-your satisfaction is guaranteed at B-Logistics! Due to the large scale of our operation, we do not have access to the specific contents/condition of our items. Please note that Expedited shipping is not available at this time. read more
Binding: Spoken Word Compact Disc
Publisher: Gildan Audio
Date Published: 2009-06-01
ISBN-13:9781596592797ISBN:1596592796
Description: NEW. Spoken Word Compact Disc. From an inventory that is 100% brand-new, 100% direct from the publishers' distribution channel. We carry NO pre-owned, NO remaindered. We pack in CARDBOARD to ensure the pristine quality is maintained. (Bubble-wrap alone is NOT sufficient to protect from USPS equipment. ) Guaranteed brand-NEW, protected with CARDBOARD, your satisfaction is guaranteed. BKLUVID: 9781596592797. read more
Binding: Audio CD
Publisher: Your Coach in a Box
Date Published: 2009
ISBN-13:9781596592797ISBN:1596592796
Description: New. Brand New! Buy with confidence-your satisfaction is guaranteed at B-Logistics! Due to the large scale of our operation, we do not have access to the specific contents/condition of our items. Please note that Expedited shipping is not available at this time. read more
Description: New. 0307275175 NEW: NEVER READ...! ! ! ! . (may have faint shelf wear from bookstore). ALL ORDERS SHIP SAME OR NEXT BUSINESS DAY, FREE POSTAL DELIVERY CONFIRMATION FOR U.S. ORDERS, TOP CUSTOMER SERVICE! ! ! ! read more
Description: Good or better. May have price sticker and/or some shop wear-Because of our high volume, we can not accurately describe each book, so we list the MINIMUM condition you can expect; most are better than the condition listed. read more
Binding: Trade paperback
Publisher: Vintage Books USA
Date Published: 2009
ISBN-13:9780307275172ISBN:0307275175
Description: Very good. No dust jacket as issued. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 252 p. Contains: Illustrations. Audience: General/trade. read more
"very interesting book on how random processes/sampling error can be responsible for large effects yet difficult to perceive. Ties together numerous seemingly disparate effects (why are stock analysts paid so much if it's nearly impossible to beat the market average consistently? why do people tend to believe that those who experience failure or misfortune deserved it? etc. etc.
Also delves into considerable detail on the history of understanding of probability, games of chance, and so on, and how one discovery/invention facilitated another (e.g., it was hard to work out an understanding of the probabilities of joint occurrences of independent events before it was common to use positioning to convey meaning of numbers -- tens place, hundreds place, and so on) -- more and more, I'm finding that sort of history of ideas a lot more interesting than the history of politics, military campaigns, names of laws passed, etc., probably because the history classes taken in school are so lopsided the other way.
Lots of these things seem obvious in retrospect or when pointed out, but when first applied to a new area are actually very counterintuitive. He describes the development of a mid-80's study by Tversky and others of the "hot hand" in basketball for instance -- mistaken belief that the conditional probability of a made basket is altered by recent results. I remember being at a psychology convention when I happened to hear that study presented orally before it was published, and the audience had one hypothesis after another to try to salvage the hot hand (it's not random deviation from your basic long-run-average shooting percentage -- you do get hot or cold, but people offset this tendency with the difficulty of the shots they try -- if I'm feeling it, I'll try anything and therefore start missing, but if I'm off I'll insist on only high-percentage shots from there. Or the defense clamps down on the hot guy, etc. None of which would be consistent with teams actually trying to feed the hot hand, as they readily admit doing).
It's a good thing I don't fall for any of this or wear lucky shirts on Redskins game days."
"Ein richtig gutes Buch für alle die, die sich ein bisschen für Mathematik interessieren, aber in der Schule (so wie ich) spätestens bei der Integralrechnung ausgestiegen sind. Unterhaltsam und anschaulich wird einem vor Augen geführt, wie leicht man sich bei statistischen Fragen oder bei Wahrscheinlichkeiten täuschen oder auch - im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes - verrechnen kann.
Manches wird ein bisschen aufdringlich wiederholt (ok, Lektoren und Weinexperten sind auch nur Menschen), und manches ist ein bisschen zu unspektakulär, zum Beispiel die Erkenntnis, dass es einfacher ist, in die Vergangenheit zu sehen als in die Zukunft.
Aber manches ist eben einfach auch richtig verblüffend, und allein das rechtfertigt die 5 Sterne. Neben dem (mir bereits bekannten) Auto/Ziege Problem etwa das Two-daughter Paradox, das ich für Interessierte mal übersetzt habe (ist bei Wikipedia leicht unter "two daughte probability" auf Englisch zu finden). Goodreads mag keine Excel Tabellen, wer sie in lesbarer Version haben will, meldet sich bitte bei mir.
Two daughters
Meine beiden folgenden Behauptungen stehen unter zwei Prämissen:
Prämisse 1: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Kind ein Junge oder ein Mädchen ist, beträgt 50%.
Prämisse 2: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Mädchen schwarze Haare hat, beträgt 25%.
Behauptung 1: Wenn eine Familie 2 Kinder hat, und eines davon ist ein Mädchen, dann beträgt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das andere Kind auch ein Mädchen ist, ein Drittel oder 33,33%.
Behauptung 2: Wenn eine Familie 2 Kinder hat, und eines davon ist ein Mädchen mit schwarzen Haaren, dann beträgt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das andere Kind auch ein Mädchen ist, 60%.
Und hier ist der Beweis:
Die erste Behauptung ist leicht zu beweisen. Bei zwei Kindern gibt es genau 4 Möglichkeiten der Verteilung, und offensichtlich sind alle Möglichkeiten gleich wahrscheinlich: 1. Junge/Junge (J/J) (25%) 2. Junge/Mädchen (JM) (25%) 3. Mädchen/Junge (MJ) (25%) 4. Mädchen/Mädchen (MM) (25%) Da drei Fälle (1.,3. und 4.), also insgesamt 9.000 Kombinationen, möglich sind, und in 3.000 dieser Kombinattionen auch das zweite Kind ein Mädchen ist, beträgt die Wahrscheinlichkeit 1/3.
Behauptung 2 ist komplizierter. Die Fälle, bei denen Mädchen in der Familie sind, müssen gesondert betrachtet werden. Wenn also die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Kombination Mädchen/Junge (auch in dieser Reihenfolge) 25% beträgt, dann liegt die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, dass das Mädchen schwarze Haare hat (SM), wiederum bei 25%, dass es keine schwarzen Haare hat (M) bei 75% . Von den 3.000 Fällen J/M ist es also am wahrscheinlichsten, dass 750 Mädchen schwarzhaarig sind und 2.250 eben nicht.
Es bleiben also nur noch 3.750 möglicheKombinationen übrig. Davon sind 2.250 Fälle Treffer (beides Mädchen; Zeilen 11, 12 und 13), und 1.500 Fälle sind Nieten (ist also doch ein Junge dabei; Zeilen 5 und 8). Das ist eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 2.250/3.750 (=0,6), also 60%."
"Excellent book that might change your view of the world forever. Especially recommended for anyone who skipped stats in college but is curious about the measured world.
Largely told through storytelling about developments first in probabilty and then statistics. Understanding comes from how insight after insight layered up to become usable methods.
If nothing else, clearest explanation of why you change doors in Price is Right or switch briefcases in Deal or No Deal."
"For anyone which has not had the benefit of taking Statistics (hopefully in college), this book is an excellent overview of the material you would get in a college level course (although without the beauty of calculus) told through many lenses: history, social policy issues, interesting mathematical puzzles.
For anyone that wonders about events that seem seemingly pre-ordained or destined, this might be a good book to expand your thinking and make you think about the role probability can play in your life.
If you like like to collect little useless nuggets of information, although it's not meant to be a cornucopia such as something like 'The General Book of Ignorance', this book should provide some nice sustenance. :-)
Finally, and maybe MOST IMPORTANTLY, let me step on my soap box here and say to anyone that reads this book, please take the time to understand the discussion about Conditional Probability!! I honestly believe the world would be a better place if everyone did."
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