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The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert ...Show synopsisThe intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.Hide synopsis
Description:Fair. Moisture marks on page edges, covers scuffe/faded, wear to...Fair. Moisture marks on page edges, covers scuffe/faded, wear to edges/corners.
Description:Fair. Some shelf wear, may contain highlighting/notes, may not...Fair. Some shelf wear, may contain highlighting/notes, may not include cdrom or access codes, customer service is our top priority!
Description:Good. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 321 p. Contains:...Good. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 321 p. Contains: Illustrations. Audience: General/trade. The book is very good condition All order ship with Delivery confirmation and free track «
Description:Fair. Some shelf wear, may contain highlighting/notes, may not...Fair. Some shelf wear, may contain highlighting/notes, may not include cdrom or access codes, customer service is our top priority!
Description:Good. 0691128715 Creasing on covers, minor denting along page...Good. 0691128715 Creasing on covers, minor denting along page edges. Good condition. Light to moderate shelf wear, binding intact. (PP81)
Description:New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller...New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller since 2000. Please note we cannot offer an expedited shipping service from the UK.
Description:New. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 321 p. Contains:...New. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 321 p. Contains: Illustrations. In Stock. 100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition, allow 4-14 business days for standard shipping. To Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. protectorate, P.O. box, and APO/FPO addresses allow 4-28 business days for Standard shipping. No expedited shipping. All orders placed with expedited shipping will be cancelled. Over 3, 000, 000 happy customers.
