From the author of the Pulitzer and Eccles Prize-winning, "The Prize", this book analyzes one of the most important events of the 20th and 21st centuries - what comes next after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It uses the management technique of scenario planning to build four plausible stories of the future already evidenced by events occuring ...
From the author of the Pulitzer and Eccles Prize-winning, "The Prize", this book analyzes one of the most important events of the 20th and 21st centuries - what comes next after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It uses the management technique of scenario planning to build four plausible stories of the future already evidenced by events occuring in Russia today - not least the recent success in the elections of the ultra-nationalists. The "stories" are: "The two-headed eagle" - a Russia that looks forwards and backwards at the same time?; "The long good-bye" - the dissolution of Russia?; "The Russian bear" - a grim dictatorship?; and "Chudo" - the Russian economic miracle? Yergin and Gustafson provide essential insight into emerging power relationships, local ethnic wars that could turn into wider conflicts, and they also study the opportunities and pitfalls facing the new Russia. Throughout the book, the authors examine the possible Western response, look at the new role of foreign investment and international aid, the priorities for arms control, and argue the final paradox - that the West is both marginal and crucial for Russia's future development. The book should be of interest to corporate executives, politicians, scholars and students in helping to think through the state of the world after communism. Daniel Yergin is also the author of "Shattered Peace".
Publishers Weekly, 1993-11-15 In a bold report, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Yergin ( The Prize ) and Gustafson, a Georgetown University professor of government, outline several potential scenarios for the future of Russia. The most optimistic one, `` Chudo '' (Russian for miracle ), predicts an economic renaissance based on vastly improved efficiency, capital investment to rebuid the social and physical infrastructure and production of new types of goods. More pessimistic scenarios range from a ``Red-Brown'' coalition of communists and fascists, to a noncommunist but conservative technocracy, to the dissolution of Russia itself as the Russian Far East and Siberia are drawn into the orbits of China and Japan. The authors believe that regardless of which scenario occurs, some form of capitalism will evolve by the year 2010. (Nov.) (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved
Publishers Weekly, 1995-01-16 Based on research by the international consulting firm CERA, this persuasive, newly updated study posits a number of detailed future scenarios for the former Soviet Union. (Feb.) (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved
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